Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica Zucc.) for Mexico: An Approach for Mexico’s Primary Harvest Area

Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica Zucc.) is a non-timber forest resource of ecological and economic importance in the arid zones Mexico due to commercialization its wax for industrial purposes. The objectives this study were (i) delimit areas current projected future candelilla habitat suitability state Coahuila, (ii) determine most important variables that define habitat, (iii) propose conservation under climate change conditions Coahuila. Records presence, bioclimatic layers from MPIESM-LR HadGEM2-ES models with two scenarios RCP 4.5 8.5, used create species distribution soil topographical variables. MaxEnt software was project change. We estimated surface area be 79,336.87 km2, Coahuila 25,620.75 km2. In using model 2050, estimate 20,177.67 km2 17,079.61 8.5; while 2070, 12,487.18 9812.94 8.5. For 20,066.40 km2; 2070 it 17,156.02 16,073.70 As proposed face change, we 5435.06 3636.96 located northwest center near natural protected Ocampo Bajo Rio San Juan, are resilient results obtained provide information on environmental site establishment Mexico, as well geographical areas, such Sierra y Cañon de Jimulco, Tomás Garrido, 026 Río Zapalinamé, Cumbres Monterrey Restoration Zones local scenarios. addition, new could establish economically species.